PetroM Weekly Pulse #018: Brent Surges Past $90 – Dangote Hikes PMS to N1,215, Diesel to N1,650
Escalating US‑Iran strikes pushed Brent crude past $90/bbl this week, touching $92 and surging toward $100 – a 12.8% weekly jump. Dangote Refinery resumed Naira‑denominated gantry loading after its dollar‑pricing experiment, but at sharply higher baselines: PMS N1,215/litre and AGO N1,650/litre. Private depots responded immediately, pushing PMS past N1,250–1,275 and AGO to N1,630–1,650, forcing retail pump price recalibration nationwide.
PMS – Seller's market cemented
Independent private depots jumped N140‑200 to N1,250–1,275 (Lagos), with Kano/Abuja/Kaduna hitting N1,310–1,350. Domestic stock buffer holds near 20 days, but continuous Red Sea tanker attacks and $90+ crude realities threaten further adjustments. Vessels from Pivot and A.A. Rano are offloading. Advice: Secure fresh allocations from active coastal terminals immediately – further crude escalation will feed into gantry templates.
AGO – Sharp spike
Diesel jumped N200 to N1,630–1,650 (Lagos), with North/East toward N1,720. Bullish hedging behavior is accelerating as operators fear crude breaching $100. Advice: Acquire sufficient diesel reserves to cover immediate operational requirements – rates will hold near N1,650 while Red Sea shipping risks persist.
DKP – Restricted supply
Refining priorities favor jet fuel and high‑grade diesel, leaving kerosene streams constrained. Elevated replacement costs and household demand pressure mean slow‑moving inventory is a working capital risk. Advice: Maintain minimal exposure to household kerosene lines.
Currency – Liquidity tested
The combination of $90+ crude and Dangote's operational shift continues to test liquidity across parallel and NAFEM channels. Advice: Evaluate pump prices daily to ensure sales revenue can support replacement of incoming product volumes.
Strategic take
This is a firm seller's market. Secure stock now before further crude escalation drives prices higher. Align pump prices with new replacement costs to protect working capital.
🔧 Supporting Your Strategy with PetroM
When Brent crude surges past $90, Dangote adjusts petrol gantry rates to ₦1,215/litre, and diesel moves to ₦1,650/litre, manual multi-station record-keeping may introduce operational complexity. PetroM's Real-Time Blend-Cost & Margin Protection Engine helps address this by instantly cross-referencing live wholesale depot pricing against physical multi-station tank dips. This visibility can support informed pump price calibration—helping maintain competitive positioning while supporting awareness of actual replacement costs to help protect net working capital across your station network during periods of active market adjustment.