PetroM Weekly Pulse #013: 33% Crude Collapse – Dangote Slashes PMS to N1,175, Diesel to N1,500
A diplomatic US‑Iran breakthrough triggered a 33% collapse in international crude over the last three months, forcing a dramatic downstream reset. Dangote Refinery slashed its PMS gantry to N1,175/litre and diesel to N1,500/litre, while suspending gasoline exports. Independent private depots front‑ran these changes within hours, creating a fiercely competitive buyer’s market.
PMS – Surging supply, falling prices
Lagos private depots crashed to N1,161–1,165/litre – down N79 week‑on‑week, and already below Dangote’s new benchmark. Daily consumption stands at 47M litres (+6.8%), with imports surging 60%. Calabar N1,187, PHC N1,200. Advice: Buy on a just‑in‑time basis – intense terminal competition suggests spot prices may continue adjusting.
AGO – N197 drop
Diesel collapsed to N1,478–1,495 (down N197), undercutting Dangote’s N1,500 floor. Warri commands a N1,634–1,635 premium (+N140 vs Lagos). Advice: Defer multi‑station replenishment until mid‑week as regional hubs adjust downward to close the gap with Lagos.
LPG – Still tight
Despite 11‑day sufficiency reports, the FG has ordered emergency imports. Terminal supply constraints keep premium pricing in place. Secure prompt allocations to satisfy baseline household cooking demand.
Currency – Stabilized
Hormuz reopening has stabilized parallel and NAFEM tracks, dramatically lowering landing barriers for private cargoes. Avoid holding higher‑cost inventory in this rapidly adjusting market.
Strategic take
Dangote’s export suspension + 60% import surge = total supply optimization. Align pump prices with new N1,161–1,165 coastal entry points to retain customer volume while managing margin exposure.
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